TITLE: Two Factors for Succeeding at Research, or Investing AUTHOR: Eugene Wallingford DATE: April 09, 2015 3:26 PM DESC: ----- BODY: Think differently, of course. But be humble. These attitudes go hand-in-hand.
To make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble. You have to be an independent thinker because you can't make money agreeing with the consensus view, which is already embedded in the price. Yet whenever you're betting against the consensus there's a significant probability you're going to be wrong, so you have to be humble.
This applies equally well to doing research. You can't make substantial progress with the conventional wisdom, because it defines and limits the scope of the solution. So think differently. But when you leave the safety of conventional wisdom, you find yourself working in an immense space of ideas. There is a significant chance that you will be wrong a lot. So be humble. (The quote is from Learn or Die: Using Science to Build a Leading-Edge Learning Organization by Ray Dalio.) -----